marketing math

LPO2_3D_PRIMARY-right-facingAt first, I was pleased to get my brand new copy of Landing Page Optimization Second Edition, delivered and signed by Tim Ash himself. I had learned a great deal from his first edition. It was a time in which I was adding more optimization services to my practice.
The new edition seemed to have everything. It had fresh pages from Tim plus Rich Page and Maura Ginty. It had a snazzy blue cover. Many of the graphics inside were new or updated.
And then it hit me.
Where were my dog-ears? My notes in the margins? The coffee stains on my most visited pages? The new book didn’t fall open to the places I revisited most, like the handy little “Size of Improvements” chart (now on page 302). It was all… gone.
I felt like my favorite site had been redesigned and none of my bookmarks worked. This is the downside to new editions, so I went searching for reasons to start over. It turned out to be a nice reminder of what we do and how we do it.
First of all, he still calls our baby “ugly” to highlight the need for “unflinching courage and clinical detachment” in examining your site. I guess familiarity is welcome in almost any form.
The new book has new content from Tim’s classic presentations, including “The Seven Deadly Sins of Landing Page Design” and his “Conversion Ninja Toolbox.”

Meet the authors at Conversion Conference Chicago, June 25-27.

Less of an edge

I don’t know if Rich and Maura brought this characteristic, but the book has a bit less of an edge. Tim introduced his original section on “The Math of Tuning” with a section entitled “Just Grin and Bear It.” That little ditty is now gone, as is the section “A Final Warning.” The chapter from the first edition “Why Your Site is Not Perfect” has been removed and the content scattered about, as if they were trying to hide it.
Still, you can sense a little of the original edge. The chapter on “Understanding Your Audience” is now “Misunderstanding Your Visitors.” I had to jump to that one.

Just about everything is in there

The book is ambitious, and Tim, Rich and Maura do a good job of covering a lot of ground without eye-glazing detail. Of course, the discussion of factoring is still there.
The new book covers conversion improvement basics and best practices in common situations, which sets the table for the ensuing chapters. There’s a basic primer on statistics and probability. The authors address the challenges of assembling a team and getting buy-in, certainly a thornier optimization challenge than the technical issues.
The excellent chapter “Developing Your Action Plan” is there. New content on mobile websites can be found in this edition.
For me, Landing Page Optimization has been the best book in my library for successful testing, and is the one I most return to. The title may be misleading. Since every page on your site could be a landing page, it is really a book about website optimization.
The new edition offers even more without becoming cumbersome. If only I they could have preserved my “customizations” from the first edition.
The next best thing to reading Landing Page Optimization is seeing Tim, Rich and Maura in person. Will you be at Conversion Conference Chicago June 25-27? It is the most interesting and educational way to get your optimization game into full swing.

Find out at the Door64 Tech Fair and Extraordinary Interviews Seminar

What Conversion Metrics Should a Job Seeker Examine? A/B Testing of Toilet Paper at Cupprimo

A/B Testing of Toilet Paper at Cupprimo

For a Conversion Scientist, life is full of A/B tests. You find them everywhere. We are naturally curious creatures, always wondering why people behave the way they do. The answers are rarely obvious.

For example, I have been monitoring a sort of A/B split test happening at a local cupcake and coffee shop called Cupprimo. For some unknown reason, the proprietors have consistently provided both quilted and unquilted toilet paper in their men’s room. As you might expect, the quilted TP roll is consistently smaller than it’s unquilted competitor.

But, as a Conversion Scientist, I have to ask: is it because the position of the quilted roll is more convenient to right-handed bomb-droppers? Is it because the luxurious quilted TP is thicker, and that the roll only appears to shrink faster? Perhaps it is a test error? Are the hapless managers not replacing the rolls at the same time? Here’s the real kicker: are these results consistent with the ladies’ results?

I know that, like me, you’re just dying to find out what the test really tells us. But right now, I’m going to spend the next few paragraphs trying to tie this example to my presentations at the Door64 Tech Fair and the Extraordinary Interviews Seminar for Technology Professionals. You want to go, you just don’t know why yet.

The Job Search and Conversion

While the toilet paper question is important, I’ve had to focus my attention on the problem of job search for the past few months. As in our toilet paper split test, I am dealing with incomplete information in the job search. Elusive are the conclusions we would draw from our job search data.

The ultimate conversion is a job offer. However, it turns out that the resume-to-job-offer conversion rate is fraught with trouble, the most significant being that once we get one or two conversions, we stop caring. We take a job and stop searching.

What we need for the job search is predictive metrics. For most job seekers, the most important predictive metric has been number of resumes sent. But this approach is no different from that taken by any number of companies who’ve spent like drunken sailors buying clicks for search terms that have little to do with their business, hoping that someone might actually become a lead or buy something–anything. This is not conversion.

A more important measure is number of interviews. For the sake of conversion, we measure it as the number of interviews booked divided by resumes sent. I call this the resume-to-book rate. The drunken sailor set will say, “So the more resumes we send, the more interviews we will get, right?” Well, since the resume-to-book rate is a percentage, throwing resumes against the proverbial wall will actually decrease your conversion rate (unless you send each with a substantial sum of money, which is also true in pay-per-click search).

The key is to send fewer more targeted resumes.

When you do this three things increase your resume-to-book rate:

  • You decrease the number of resumes sent, which will mathematically increase resume-to-book rates.
  • You increase the likelihood of getting more interviews by spending more time on each application and cover letter.
  • You target only those jobs for which you are somewhat qualified.

In other words, your doing the exact opposite of what most search marketers do.

Meaningful Job Search Conversion Rates

It turns out that, like our quilted toilet paper test, our resume-to-book rate has some built-in issues. Since 80% of all jobs offers are garnered from a personal contact, sending resumes is actually the least effective way to apply for a job. The number of postings available via job boards is too small and there’s too much competition. In short, it doesn’t scale. The Conversion Scientist ranks #1 on all search engines for “conversion scientists with lab coats.” However, the number of searches is small, so it really doesn’t help. Job postings have the same problem.

Since personal contact is the way to get interviews, then our predictive conversions must be tied to the number of people who are actively helping us look for work. For most of us, that is our parents (motivated to get us to move out of the house again) and that one new recruiter who hasn’t yet learned a tactful way to tell us they don’t really have anything for us.

As it turns out, it’s our old friend “opt-in rate” that is the most powerful predictor of our job search. Most of us have low opt-in rates. ‘We’ve Twittered, “Got laid off. Let me know if you hear of anything.” That doesn’t invite an opt-in. A few of us have sent emails to our professional contacts detailing our qualifications. Then we end by saying “Let me know if you hear of anything.” Not an opt-in either. In short, we don’t give our personal networks anything to opt into, and our opt-in rates would be zero if not for our parents and that one green recruiter.

Why is opt-in important? Because the higher your opt-in rates, the larger your personal job search network gets. The larger your personal job search network, the more unpublicized jobs you’ll be privy to. The people who know how to engage their personal network have the following advantages:

  • They uncover jobs that aren’t posted
  • They get inside information on the jobs they apply for
  • They find champions to walk their resumes into the hiring manager
  • They circumvent the trolls in HR whose main job is to protect the hiring manager from tidal waves of resumes

Learn How to Put Your Personal Network to Work for You

If you want to enjoy the benefits of an active network of friends, relatives and colleagues joyfully working day-in and day-out to help you find a cherry position, then you need to come out and see me. I’ve written the book, and we’re working on the software, but you can’t get either right now, so this is your only option. There are two opportunities in Austin:

[UPDATE: This has been cancelled] April 28 at the Extraordinary Interviews for Technology Professionals Seminar. This is a full day that covers the gamut–networking, resume writing, cover letters, and interviewing skills. Those who attend this event are going to be taking all of the good jobs for a while. The rest of you can relax.

April 30 at the Door64 Tech Fair and Austin Brain Party. If you don’t think you have a personal network, let Matt Genovese and Door64 get one started for you at the Tech Fair and Brain Party. I’ll be talking about the ten attitudes that you will need to succeed in the job market for the next 20 years. For a list of the participants you want to know visit